The statistical probability that a hypothesis is true calculated in the light of relevant observations.
- They implemented a full Bayesian method for calculating posterior probabilities using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
- To summarize: the paradox arises because you use the prior probabilities to calculate the expected gain rather than the posterior probabilities.
- The expectations are actually obtained using the posterior probabilities rather than the prior probabilities.
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Line breaks: pos|ter¦ior prob|abil¦ity
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